Great Disruption

About this book

"This book aims to put the shocking events of 2016-17 in to a long-term, historical perspective. The seemingly disparate and separately discussed election of Donald Trump, Brexit vote, and the success of Marine LePen's National Front Party and the wider spread of populism have an overlooked commonality. They all start with a similar core constituency of disaffected older, blue collar workers. Using a data-driven analysis, the author shows that racism and xenophobia or to economic distress are linked to economic populism, that is xenophobia becomes widespread under conditions of economic stress. The author shows further that since economic stress is felt very deeply, conventional solutions are inadequate. There is a perception among the affected group that politicians can not offer "normal" solutions, and thus turn to populism. The author traces long-term and largely un-linked shifts in the economy from globalization to automation to uncover the deeper sources of populist outbreaks. The author demonstrates that racial and immigrant attitudes have not changed, rather any backlash is a scapegoating effect of economic loss and dislocation. Populism not only mis-diagnoses the situation, but also misses the wider long-term threats of climate change, demographic shifts, and the rise of China. Recognizing the transformational nature of such threats depends on the maturation of the Millennial generation and its willingness to evolve towards a more global style of governance, in the process rejecting the shallow promises of populism"--